The Fourth Turning: An American prophecy

What the generational cycles in time tell us about America's next rendezvous with history

 

In the last two blogs I discussed the notion of patterns and numbers that reoccur in our society. Signs and symbols have been useful across time and space to convey multiple levels of meaning.  Strauss and Howe identify a fascinating cluster of generational patterns of behaviours that enable the reader to understand our current cultural zeitgeist.

Natural structures

Our lives, in many ways, are defined by certain rhythms and cycles that intersect and converge in many ways. For example, each day is governed by a cycle of waking, rising, working, eating, and sleeping. Our daily routines harmonise with the regular rhythms of our clocks. In nature we observe the life cycles of butterflies and experience the rhythm of the water cycle. In many instances time itself is conceptualised as cyclical in that it is geared to the rotation of the earth. The number 4 is related to the seasons of the year, we also think of the four directions (four corners of the earth) of north, south, east and west. Thus, the number 4 is linked to the Earth's rotation as well as the notion of cyclical time.

 

Ancient cosmology

Ancient cosmologies reflected these natural patterns, they had a cyclical understanding of what it meant to be human and part of the natural world. It also gave them a spiritual connection and ontological meaning. From stone age tribal societies to ancient Greece and Rome patterns and rhythms were put in place by mythological gods and spirit-like beings of ancient times. For them, to be fully human meant that they were part of the cosmological patterns which gave purpose and meaning to their existence.  Their cultural lives also reflected the natural patterns and those patterns were incorporated into their festivals, holidays and ceremonies through music, dance and design.
 
In the Greco-Roman civilization cyclical reality was supposedly punctuated by ‘inklings of human improvement"  but the overall members were locked into a purposeful hierarchical position in society. In other words, a noble man is born into a high position and likewise a slave fulfilled the purpose for which he/she was made. In the same way they also viewed the material world as being imbued with  this same ‘Telos’, the idea that all objects are directed towards a specific end. Thus, the entire universe was set in endless cycles and specified purposes to sustain society and to avoid 'chaotic time'. 

Cyclical and linear time 
The spread of the Judeo-Christian monism changed the cosmology of time and space. It created a sense of 'linear time' whereby humankind was no longer fated to 'cyclical time' with its endless patterns and fixed class roles. Linear time had a beginning and an end, it had a purpose and a grand narrative. This was given impetus by the Protestant Reformation and the Age of Reason. Humankind was no longer cast into a fixed pattern of chaotic or cyclical reality but could become a creative entity using reason and inventiveness to move forward beyond the ancient moulds. The key notion was that mankind was created in the image of God and as an image bearer could be creative like the creator of the universe. However, this cosmological view was dependent upon the idea that God is relational and that the divine being had a purpose for the world. In the ancient world the Jewish people had a unique sense of history and an understanding of progress toward higher values and human creativity and improvement.  

In Europe, at the end of the Middle Ages the hermetic fields of alchemy and astrology were abandoned as archaic branches of non-linear space. Technology was developed during the industrial revolution and cyclical time was flattened and no longer completely reliant on seasonal variations. Enlightenment and scientific method reduced the whole into parts and projected modern man beyond the confines of the natural order of things. In the New World,  the prevailing view was that, “Unless there was progress there could be no God in history.” The number three symbolised masculine or linear time that prepresented the progressive narrative structure with a beginning, middle and end. Cyclical time, however, had more or less the same three-part structure but was punctuated with a fourth element that cycled back to the beginning.

 

History is cyclical
Strauss and Howe contend that history is not directionless and not wholly linear either, but can be understood as reoccuring cycles or seasons that progressively move forward in history. In other words time is a series of cycles that move through turnings that follow seasonal patterns. The sacculum is a seasonal segment that is roughly the length of a long human lifetime and eventually culminates in a turning. Each sacculum segment is comprised of a constellation of 4 generations that exemplify 4 Jungian (Based on the 4 generations of the Biblical exodus to the promised land) archetypes: prophet, nomad, hero, and artist. However, periodically there will inevitably be a turning or a new sacculum (4 generations) as each generation adopts different values according to their generational characteristics and proclivities. “A turning is a social mood that changes each time the generational archetypes enter a new constellation." These turnings will eventually reach crisis point, particularly at the fourth turning. 

            
The First turning is a High – an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism, when a new civic order implants and the old values regime decays. (Nomads enter elderhood; Heros enter midlife; Artists, young adulthood; and Prophets, childhood).

The second turning is an awakening- a passionate era of spiritual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime as Heroes enter into elderhood, Artist, mid-life;  Prophets, young adulthood; and Nomads, childhood. 
 
The third turning is an unravelling - a downcast era of strengthening individualism and awakening institutions, when the old civic order decays and the new values regime implants. Artists enter childhood; Prophets, mid-life: Nomads, young adulthood; and Heroes, childhood. 
 
The 4th turning is a crisis - undecisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.  Prophets into elderhood: Nomads, mid-life : Heroes, young adulthood: and Artist, childhood. 
 
A crisis point

At this present time in American (and possibly in other Western countries such as Australia and Canada) we are approaching a crisis as exemplified by a peak at the fourth turning. Modern societies too often reject the notion of natural cycles: believing that we are inherently more advanced and progressive than our ancestors. We are also increasingly rejecting the history of Western culture and our Judeo-Christian heritage. Our society is no longer anchored to the past, it is often characterised as being chaotic and purposeless, it seems to have no direction and no meaning. In contemporary culture it is expressed in phrases like, ‘if it feels good – do it’ or 'my truth'. In academia this relativity is usually expressed in terms of deconstructive nihilism or postmodernism. It often manifests as a fractured amalgum of chance experience where space and time are viewed as haphazard and events are without purpose. Tribalism and hated for difference is now endemic and chaotic.
 
In the past chaotic time has been discouraged in favour of  civil society and the fostering an ordered relationship to the cosmos. In the present time it has been dominated by critical theories and postmodern fractionalism. Assuming the authors are correct it would appear that this present age is a time of change crisis. When you consider time as seasonal in terms of turnings the huge spans of time will become more comprehensible and history become more important to us. When you view time as cyclical you can see patterns emerge in predictable ways. The end result will be that the culture is eventually renewed and old difficulties will be resolved.
 

Seasons of life

At the end of the book the authors quote Ecclesiaties 3: 1-8

To everything there is a season,

and a time to every purpose under heaven:

a time to be born, and a time to die;

a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;

a time tio kill, and a time to heal;

a time to break down, and a time to build up;

a time to weep, and a time to laugh;

a time to mourn, and a time to dance;

a time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together;

a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;

a time to get, and a time to lose;

a time to keep, and a time to cast away;

a time to rend, and a time to sew;

a time to keep silent, and a time to speak;

a time to love, and a time to hate;

a time of war, and a time of peace.

The Book:

Strauss, W., Howe, N. (1997). The fourth turning: An American prophecy. N.Y.: Three Rivers Press.